portada Counterfactual Reasoning: A Basic Guide for Analysts, Strategists, and Decision Makers (en Inglés)

Counterfactual Reasoning: A Basic Guide for Analysts, Strategists, and Decision Makers (en Inglés)

Formato

Libro Físico

Autor

Ph. D. Noel Hendrickson

Editorial

Lulu.com

Idioma

Inglés

N° páginas

Encuadernación

Tapa Blanda

Dimensiones

22.9x15.2x0.5 cm

Peso

0.14 kg.

ISBN13

9781105055638

Categorías

Enciclopedias y obras de consulta
Historia militar

Counterfactual Reasoning: A Basic Guide for Analysts, Strategists, and Decision Makers (en Inglés)

Ph. D. Noel Hendrickson (Autor) · Lulu.com · Tapa Blanda

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Reseña del libro "Counterfactual Reasoning: A Basic Guide for Analysts, Strategists, and Decision Makers (en Inglés)"

Counterfactual reasoning evaluates conditional claims about alternate possibilities and their consequences (i.e., ?What If? statements). Counterfactuals are essential to intelligence analysis. The process of counterfactual reasoning has three stages. First, one must establish the particular way in which the alternate possibility comes to be (i.e., develop its ?back-story?). Second, one must evaluate the events that occur between the time of the alternate possibility and the time for which one is considering its consequences. And third, one must examine the possible consequences of the alternate possibility's back-story and the events that follow it. In doing so, an analyst must connect conclusions to speci